As Walmart celebrates its 63rd birthday this year, the retail giant continues to differentiate itself through data capabilities, technological innovation, and a willingness to experiment with new strategies.
The situation: A cloud of uncertainty has hung over the US economy since the Trump administration’s April 9 pause of so-called reciprocal tariffs. That’s made it difficult for retailers and brands to plan for the short and medium term. The outlook is now poised to grow even murkier. President Donald Trump extended the pause period—originally set to expire on Wednesday—until August 1. At the same time, he announced new 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, also taking effect August 1, along with steep additional levies on other countries. Our take: With companies planning to pass on about 70% of the cost of levies to consumers via higher prices, it’s no surprise that we expect tariffs to take a meaningful bite out of retail sales this year—whether we remain in the moderate scenario or shift into a heavier one. In such a dynamic environment, retailers and brands should rely on scenario modeling that accounts for a range of possible futures. They can hope for the best but plan for the worst to ensure they’re ready to adapt to whatever twists lie ahead.
The news: Retail media infrastructure firm Topsort is helping major retailers like Woolworths, Kohl’s, and Magalu grow ad revenues by 60% in a single month, per CEO Regina Ye. Topsort’s Data Genie tool converts billions of data points into instant insights and replaces legacy analytics systems that delay campaign execution. Our take: With budget exhaustion, measurement complexity, and system fragmentation among top buyer complaints, retailers are eager to modernize. Topsort’s AI-powered tools offer transparency, speed, and flexibility—values that align closely with where the market is heading. The bigger question: Will fall product updates bring true interoperability or further entrench silos?
The news: Industry KPI data from Pi Datametrics shows an uptick in US search activity for luxury fashion, home furnishings, and smart tech and phones at the end of Q1 2025. The spike suggests some consumers bought goods in anticipation of the Trump administration’s tariff announcements in April. Our take: Retailers need to monitor demand closely, be prepared to adjust their pricing, and ensure they stock products that consumers want or need. With tariffs likely to take effect later this year, accuracy in forecasting demand and merchandising will be critical to manage the volatility that likely lies ahead.
The opportunity: Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom are gaining ground while some of their luxury rivals stumble. Our take: Execution matters—especially in a luxury market where consumers are increasingly anxious about the economy. These shoppers have little tolerance for poor experiences, operational missteps, or inventory gaps. Retailers that deliver consistency, trust, and seamless service will be best positioned to retain loyalty and capture share.
The commerce media space is growing fast, and as it gets more crowded, it’s becoming harder to keep up with the retail media giants. But by teaming up, smaller players can more easily scale their networks to achieve the reach to stay competitive.
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The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That’s a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce—and place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.
The news: Credit card delinquencies have sunk to their lowest levels in two years, within striking distance of pre-pandemic levels, per data from VantageScore’s Credit Gauge. Our take: Fewer issuers are tightening their credit card lending standards, but those looking to gain sign ups face troubled waters—consumer demand for credit cards fell in April by the most since the early days of the pandemic, per the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Survey.
The news: Wegmans added Instacart’s Caper Carts—AI-powered smart carts—to a store in Syracuse, New York. Our take: Wegmans has staked its brand on exceptional customer service.
The news: Changes to Amex’s and Chase’s credit card welcome offers do away with guaranteed points for new cardholders, per CNET. Our take: Amex and Chase are trying to maximize their marketing appeal while also limiting their rewards costs.
The trend: Consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands and other companies are expanding their size offerings to stay relevant with increasingly cost-conscious shoppers, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Offering more packaging options is a smart way for CPG brands to stay competitive in a value-focused environment. Offering more pack sizes is a smart move given consumers’ razor-sharp focus on value. But execution matters. If consumers perceive downsized offerings as shrinkflation rather than value, the strategy could backfire. Brands that use size variety to attract new shoppers, price with precision, and win at the shelf will be best positioned to turn flexibility into both loyalty and margin.
The news: Consumers are increasingly taking brands’ values into account when they shop, according to a survey by the Kearney Consumer Institute. Our take: Brands can take solace in knowing that while consumers are increasingly using their spending to make a political statement, product quality, pricing, and reliability still matter. Cost concerns can outweigh dissatisfaction with retailers’ policies. But companies that stay true to their values have the opportunity to win lasting loyalty.
The news: Anime is gaining popularity across the globe, per a recent Dentsu report highlighting anime viewership trends, proving that marketers who haven’t yet paid attention to the medium need to tap in. 50% of Gen Z watches anime weekly, with 14% watching daily. Millennials also tune in frequently, with nearly half (48%) watching daily or weekly. Our take: Savvy marketers will pay attention to anime as a prime chance to reach the demographics driving the future—but going beyond a surface-level understanding of the medium will determine which marketers succeed and which fall behind.
The news: Amazon is shutting down its standalone free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) platform Freevee in August. All Freevee content—including original series and live TV—will migrate to Prime Video. Advertisers take heed: As streaming giants consolidate, ad buyers might see fewer platforms but more fragmented audiences. This centralization of inventory boosts scale but narrows options for niche targeting. Our take: Amazon and its rivals are bundling content into fewer apps to boost ad revenue and reduce churn. But for advertisers, viewer behavior is splintering as audiences jump between services each month, chasing new shows, deals, and lower costs.
The insight: Food delivery has become an ingrained habit, with more consumers turning to the service multiple times per day. Our take: With more restaurant spending being funneled through platforms like DoorDash and Uber Eats, operators are having to rethink their acquisition strategy. Companies previously reluctant to sign on to their marketplaces—like Olive Garden and Domino’s—are changing their tune as it becomes clear that consumers’ affinity for delivery is not a pandemic blip. At the same time, DoorDash and its competitors are aiming higher. For them, food delivery is merely the first stepping stone toward becoming a one-stop shop for all of consumers’ needs, from restaurant meals to groceries to pet and home improvement supplies. That’s an ambitious goal, and one that is not yet reflected in shoppers’ behavior—but that could change as people become more accustomed to spending time on delivery apps.
US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.
The news: The electric vehicle industry hit a rough patch in Q2, with sales slowing across the board—especially for companies focused solely on EVs. Our take: If the so-called Big Beautiful Bill passes—as many expect—and eliminates the EV tax credit, the industry could find itself in a downturn it can’t easily steer out of. Without incentives to offset higher upfront costs, EV adoption may slow even further, leaving automakers stuck with inventory and uncertain demand.
The trend: Scarcity still sells. Even as consumers become more budget-conscious, limited releases continue to spark outsize demand and buzz. Our take: Consumers are drawn to the new, the novel, and the exclusive. That’s why limited releases continue to deliver results. They create urgency and give brands a way to protect margins—even at a time when many shoppers are rethinking their overall spending.