In this podcast episode, we discuss if ‘Summerween’ is here to stay, which retail shopping holiday is most likely to expand, and how all of this affects shopping behavior. Listen to the discussion with Senior Director of Podcasts and guest host, Marcus Johnson, Principal Analyst, Sky Canaves, and Vice President of Content Suzy Davidkhanian.
Almost half (49%) of US Gen Zers are much more likely to pay attention to ads that make them laugh or use music they like, per a June report from Edison Research and SiriusXM Media.
Dupes are being purchased at high rates among affluent consumers, even more than those with lower incomes. 70% of high-income US adults (earning $150,000 or more) have tried a dupe private label product, per April 2025 First Insight data. This outpaces the 53% of mid-income consumers ($51,000 to $149,000) and the 41% of low-income consumers (under $50,000) that bought dupes.
The news: McDonald’s delivered strong Q2 results that topped analysts’ expectations, signaling a rebound in its core US market. Our take: McDonald’s regained its footing in Q2 after posting its steepest same-store sales drop since the pandemic. While rivals like Yum Brands and Chipotle struggled with consumer pullback, McDonald’s played to its strengths by leaning into value, nostalgia, and limited-time promotions.
The results: The US toy industry returned to growth in the first half of 2025 after a flat 2024 and a sales decline in 2023, per a new report from Circana. Dollar sales rose 6% YoY, and unit sales increased 3%. The average selling price also climbed 3%, its first meaningful increase after three years of stagnation. Our take: The toy industry is at a crossroads. While Hasbro and Mattel have both raised their full-year outlooks, short-term risks—from tariffs to economic anxiety—are building. If those pressures persist, the category’s recovery could quickly stall. To stay resilient, brands should double down on the strongest demand drivers: licensed IP and the fast-growing “kidult” segment.
Demand for food delivery strengthened in Q2, DoorDash and Uber said, as more customers become used to ordering restaurant meals and groceries online. Order frequency on Uber’s delivery platform reached all-time highs during the quarter, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said in prepared remarks, while volumes and profitability for the unit also hit record levels. Delivery bookings jumped 20% YoY, while revenues surged 25%. DoorDash also broke records, with total orders (up 20% YoY), marketplace GOV (up 23%), and revenues (up 25%) all surpassing previous quarterly highs. Food delivery is one area that is so far immune to uncertainty—a sign that consumers are increasingly wedded to services that offer convenience, and are willing to pay a premium (or at least a membership fee) to get food and other goods delivered quickly to their doors.
The result: Mercado Libre’s ad business is gaining speed—and shows no signs of slowing. Retail media revenues jumped 59% YoY on a currency-neutral basis in Q2. Our take: Mercado Libre’s retail media engine is firing on all cylinders, providing high-margin fuel to support key growth levers like free shipping and brand marketing. But while advertising can help offset those costs, it can’t carry the full weight—especially as broader profitability shows signs of strain. “Mercado Libre’s first-mover advantage laid the foundation for its retail media dominance in Latin America, but its real edge lies in continued ad innovation,” said EMARKETER principal analyst Matteo Ceurvels, pointing to new offsite offerings like the Display Extended Network and a deeper push into CTV.
China is taking more decisive steps to encourage domestic consumption and rein in price wars that are fueling deflation and straining trade relations. Beijing said it would allocate an additional RMB 69 billion ($9.6 billion) to its consumer goods trade-in program starting in October, bringing the total funds issued this year to RMB 300 billion ($41.87 billion). At the same time, the government plans to “address disorderly competition among enterprises” and more closely scrutinize overcapacity in key industries, according to a Politburo statement. Addressing both issues—domestic consumption and damaging price wars—are key to China’s ability to weather higher tariffs and expand its influence on a global stage. But that’s easier said than done.
The news: US-based rewards app Fetch opened the waitlist for the Fetch American Express Card. Our take: Fetch is positioned to take off for consumers who want rewards that help ease cost concerns when buying everyday essentials.
The news: Klarna and Afterpay will not share the majority of their consumers’ loan information with credit bureaus until they can receive confirmation that their customers will not be penalized for seeking buy now, pay later (BNPL) plans. Our take: Affirm’s early plunge into credit reporting has been blunted against its competitors’ refusal to participate in the system, but it still takes the reputational lead in terms of being a “trustworthy” provider.
The news: Serious delinquency rates held steady YoY, while credit card volume growth continued to slow, per a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Our take: As middle-class educated professionals are slapped with resumed student loan payments, many will falter in the face of reaccelerating inflation and a weakening job market—especially if faced with possible wage garnishment.
The gap between retail’s most and least digitized categories will grow even wider.
Kroger has consolidated its retail media, consumer insights, and loyalty marketing capabilities under the Kroger Precision Marketing (KPM) brand.
Ulta Beauty is tapping into trends like Korean beauty and wellness to stay relevant with younger consumers while Pop Mart has created viral excitement around its collectibles through smart digital marketing and gamification. In addition, Urban Outfitters has launched a back-to-school dorm makeover contest and Away Luggage is enhancing the travel experience with a giveaway. Here are the eight most interesting retailers and brands from last month, as ranked on our “Behind the Numbers” podcast.
The playbook: Amid mounting pressure across the grocery sector, Publix and Sprouts Farmers Market are gaining ground by leaning on four core pillars—each executed with their own twist: A sharp focus on value Convenient, high-quality prepared food options Loyalty programs that drive repeat visits Disciplined, strategic expansion The formula is working: In the most recent quarter, Publix’s revenues grew 7.0% YoY and its same-store sales rose 6.0%. Sprouts delivered even stronger results, with revenues up 17.2% and same-store sales jumping 10.2%. Our take: Publix and Sprouts show that even in a tough retail climate, disciplined execution on fundamentals still pays off. By doubling down on value, convenience, loyalty, and strategic expansion, both are positioning themselves for durable growth in a category where shopping habits tend to stick. Their clear, consistent playbook is helping them gain ground while many competitors stand still.
The results: In a home furnishings market that Wayfair CEO Niraj Shah describes as “flat to down low-single digits” and “bumping along the bottom,” Wayfair stood out. Excluding its exit from the German market, the company posted its strongest growth since 2021 and returned to profitability. Our take: While many home-related retailers are stuck in neutral amid a sluggish housing market, Wayfair is gaining traction. Its success shows that a willingness to test, learn, and iterate can help retailers stand out in an otherwise stagnant category.
The news: Amazon reported strong Q2 results for its advertising business, with advertising revenues reaching $15.6 billion—up a significant 23% YoY. Net sales increased 13% YoY to $167.7 billion, well above Q2 guidance that warned of “tariffs and trade policies” and “recessionary fears.” Our take: Moving forward, Amazon will need to innovate what it’s already offering by pioneering a retail media strategy that extends Amazon’s data and ad tech beyond its own storefront, AI-driven tools that simplify creative production and optimization at scale while prioritizing privacy, and more immersive and shoppable ad formats in its streaming offering.
The news: YouTube’s lead in connected TV (CTV) advertising faces a real threat as Amazon Prime Video gains momentum. But that standing might be short-lived—Amazon’s Prime Video is on track to surpass YouTube as the top CTV advertising platform by 2027, per Morgan Stanley as cited by Business Insider. Our take: Marketers should expect CTV ad dollars to shift toward Amazon’s ecosystem by 2027. Early investment in Amazon’s premium, shoppable ads can secure top inventory and sharpen targeting as streaming evolves.