The situation: Despite logging a sixth consecutive quarter of negative comps in FY Q3, CEO Brian Niccol—who famously steered Chipotle out of its food‑safety crisis—said Starbucks’ turnaround is running ahead of schedule. Our take: While it’s encouraging to see Starbucks take some small steps in a positive direction, the road is still steep. Consumers remain price‑sensitive, agile rivals in the US and China are taking multiple paths to steal share (both value‑led and trend‑driven), and commodity costs are rising. To break out of its sales slump, Starbucks must execute on four fronts: Make service faster and better. The chain needs to speed up service without sacrificing the high-touch hospitality that Niccol is seeking. Find ways to differentiate. It’s easy to roll out new offerings, but it's hard to develop unique beverages that consumers will clamor for rather than recoil at (who can forget Starbucks’ Oleato line of olive oil-infused drinks?). Lean on technology. Refreshing Starbucks’ Rewards program and revamping its app are proven tools to drive occasional customers back into its stores. Stabilize China. Price cuts may lift traffic, but Starbucks needs to balance volume gains against margin erosion and fend off lower‑priced competitors such as Luckin. Nailing these pillars—speed, product innovation, tech‑powered engagement, and a calibrated China play—will determine whether early green shoots turn into sustained growth.
President Donald Trump said the US will set a global “baseline” tariff in the 15%–20% range, up from the 10% rate he outlined in April. Our take: Steep tariffs are the new normal. Consumers currently face an average effective tariff of 18.2%—17.3% after adjusting for spending shifts—the highest since the 1930s, per Yale Budget Lab.
The trend: While rising cost-consciousness is causing consumers to think twice before indulging in a burrito, they’re still saying yes to a splurge-worthy drink. Beverages have emerged as one of the hottest growth categories in US foodservice, offering quick-service restaurants (QSRs) a high-margin way to boost traffic and ticket sizes amid inflation fatigue. Sales at beverage- and snack-focused chains surged 9.6% in 2024—the largest annual growth of any restaurant category, according to Technomic data cited by The Wall Street Journal. For comparison, burger chains—despite generating more total sales—grew just 1.4% over the same period. Our take: The beverage boom is fueled by novelty, shifting habits, and the hunt for higher margins. Consumers are stressed. Amid economic uncertainty, nearly half (44%) of consumers turn to comfort or junk food to cope—and specialty drinks offer a relatively affordable way to indulge without breaking the bank. They crave novelty. Limited-time drinks with bold flavors, bright colors, and TikTok appeal are strong traffic drivers, especially among Gen Z, who are eager to try what’s new while it lasts. Younger consumers are drinking less alcohol. As Gen Z and millennials cut back on alcohol, drinks like iced coffees, chillers, and fruity refreshers are filling the social gap with fun, flavorful alternatives. Chains are chasing margins. Beverages typically carry higher profit margins than food and are often (but not always) operationally easier to tweak. Adding a new syrup or topping is simpler than introducing a new entrée, making drinks an efficient way to drive both sales and excitement.
Tesla is officially in the restaurant business following the much-hyped opening of the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles. The futuristic concept could be the template for additional openings in the US as well as abroad, CEO Elon Musk said—helping the company boost brand awareness, engagement, and sales. The diner’s launch—and the accompanying wave of press and social media posts—could help reset consumers’ perceptions of the Tesla brand at a particularly tumultuous time for the company. But it could also, given the company’s increasingly polarized reputation, become a focal point for protests, which might deter would-be customers from stopping in.
Chipotle lowered its FY sales forecast after same-store sales fell more than expected in Q2, marking the second-straight quarter of declining traffic as wary consumers think twice about dining out. Chipotle’s Q2 struggles clearly show that consumers are becoming much pickier about where they choose to spend their money. The vast array of meal deals available in the QSR marketplace means Chipotle can no longer compete on value alone—making menu innovation and limited-time offerings even more necessary to drive traffic.
The strategy: Despite ongoing economic headwinds, Domino’s delivered solid Q2 growth across all income levels by doubling down on value and innovation—key pillars of its Hungry for More growth strategy. CEO Russell Weiner noted during the company’s earnings call that Domino’s has consistently gained about 1 percentage point of market share annually over the past decade—and sees ample opportunity to build on that momentum and further outpace rivals. Our take: Domino’s is proving that even in a challenging, price-sensitive environment, smart innovation and a sharp value proposition can drive growth across income cohorts. By blending crave-worthy new items like stuffed crust pizza with a more personalized loyalty experience and increased delivery flexibility, the brand is positioning itself to win market share from slower-moving rivals.
The situation: QSRs are in a tough spot. The restaurant industry had monthly traffic growth in just one of the 12 months through May, according to Black Box Intelligence data cited by CNBC. Our take: QSRs can’t afford to stand still. In a tough operating environment, brands that act decisively and innovate boldly are best positioned to outpace the macroeconomic headwinds. Even if every move doesn’t deliver an immediate payoff, momentum matters—and sitting on the sidelines is the riskiest strategy of all.
The strategy: Starbucks is testing better-for-you products in a bid to win over more health-conscious consumers, per Bloomberg. Our take: Starbucks is making some necessary changes—but there’s still plenty of work to do. Consumers want brands that meet them where they are, and that means prioritizing ingredient transparency and wellness without sacrificing flavor or convenience. For Starbucks, that could mean cutting back on sugar in key drinks, expanding nutritional add-ins, and offering more customizable options. If executed well, this strategy could help Starbucks reassert its leadership in the premium coffee space.
The insight: Food delivery has become an ingrained habit, with more consumers turning to the service multiple times per day. Our take: With more restaurant spending being funneled through platforms like DoorDash and Uber Eats, operators are having to rethink their acquisition strategy. Companies previously reluctant to sign on to their marketplaces—like Olive Garden and Domino’s—are changing their tune as it becomes clear that consumers’ affinity for delivery is not a pandemic blip. At the same time, DoorDash and its competitors are aiming higher. For them, food delivery is merely the first stepping stone toward becoming a one-stop shop for all of consumers’ needs, from restaurant meals to groceries to pet and home improvement supplies. That’s an ambitious goal, and one that is not yet reflected in shoppers’ behavior—but that could change as people become more accustomed to spending time on delivery apps.
The news:The Krispy Kreme–McDonald’s marriage is ending. The announcement comes less than two months after the companies said they were pausing a nationwide rollout—despite doughnuts being available in 2,400 McDonald’s locations—to reassess the profitability of the expansion. Our take: The breakup with McDonald’s comes at a tough time for Krispy Kreme—and for many other quick-service chains. The company has pulled its 2025 forecast, paused its dividend, and is now refocusing on what matters most: boosting cash flow, improving efficiency, and growing in a way that actually makes money in the US. The McDonald’s partnership gave Krispy Kreme more visibility, but not enough profit. With costs rising and margins getting tighter, the company is shifting its focus from rapid expansion to ensuring its business is built to last.
The trend: Casual dining chains that lean into value are luring cost-conscious consumers, even as broader economic uncertainty tempers discretionary spending. Our take: Consumers haven’t stopped dining out, but they’ve become more selective. They’re increasingly looking for value experiences that offer more for their money. That shift is pressuring some parts of the industry. Quick-service chains like McDonald’s and fine dining brands like Darden’s Ruth’s Chris and The Capital Grille are feeling the squeeze. But it’s providing an opportunity for casual dining chains that offer affordable indulgences. Their combination of sit-down service and budget-friendly pricing is hitting the mark.
Despite political pressure, McDonald’s is standing by its commitment to inclusion. While it recently replaced “DEI” language with “inclusion,” its initiatives remain intact, per Bloomberg. That contrasts with brands like Target, Nike, and JPMorgan Chase, which have scaled back DEI and climate efforts amid conservative backlash. McDonald’s cosmetic rebranding reflects a strategic calculation: investing in programs it views as beneficial for business and essential to long-term brand equity, especially with key demographics. If it avoids major backlash, McDonald’s could offer a model for other brands weighing how to uphold values while managing political and reputational risk.
Restaurant visits are declining as consumers worry about their finances: Uncertainty is pushing customers to be more discerning about where they spend their food dollars.
Clucking strong in a soft market: Chicken-focused restaurants are drawing more visits than other fast-casual chains with a winning formula of value, variety, and innovation.
Low-income consumers feel squeezed: With prices rising and the GOP tax bill set to reduce their after-tax income, relief may not come soon.
Starbucks’ dominance is under threat as Dutch Bros’ growth surges: The coffee giant is struggling to stem a sales slump as the latter’s colorful drinks and service win it more customers.
Consumers pulled back on dining out in Q1: Restaurant Brands faced headwinds but saw an April rebound, while Krispy Kreme is changing course to regain momentum.
Food delivery platforms are in expansion mode: DoorDash, Uber, Instacart, and Wonder are turning to acquisitions and new markets to maintain their momentum.
Middle- and low-income consumers pulled back on fast food in Q1: That posed a significant challenge for McDonald’s, which reported its US same-store sales fell 3.6%.
Tariffs cast a shadow over consumer spending in Q1: Growth slowed from 4.0% in Q4 to just 1.8% in Q1 as households sharply cut back on goods.