The news: Fiserv’s organic revenues grew 8% in Q2, per its earnings release. Our take: Fiserv’s Clover faces a stacked market with Shift4, Square, and Toast all offering competitive POS solutions for SMBs.
The news: New account openings were down 5% across Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and American Express during Q2 2025, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Issuers are going to chase opportunities to increase their payment volume, which explains targeted efforts to boost luxury travel and dining rewards. But looking long-term, banks need to think strategically about loosening their credit guidelines.
The news: Mastercard rolled out the AI Card Design Studio, which lets consumers and small businesses at participating banks personalize the front of their card, including with AI-generated images and designs. Our take: Mastercard offering a free, AI-based design feature lets businesses and customers maximize their design flexibility and the emotional impact of their products. (Remember customized checks with family photos?)
The news: Facing mounting pressure from ChatGPT and other platforms, Google Shopping is stepping up its game to stay ahead in the product discovery race. Our take: The best way for Google to fend off the competition is by making Shopping indispensable. Features that mimic personal stylists, surface the right deals at the right time, and boost shoppers’ confidence through virtual try-ons can help ensure consumers keep turning to Google as their shopping companion.
41% of US buy now, pay later (BNPL) users have bought clothing, shoes, and outfit accessories with the services, according to April data from LendingTree and QuestionPro.
As more consumers start GLP-1 treatments, some CPG brands must work harder to stay in shopping carts. As many GLP-1 users eat less and change their diets, it opens new challenges and opportunities for retailers and marketers.
The results: Walmart’s decision to directly overlap its “Deals” event with Amazon's four-day Prime Day sale appears to have paid off. Spending on Walmart.com surged 24% YoY during its promotion that ended July 13, according to credit and debit card transaction data from Bloomberg Second Measure—six times Amazon Prime Day’s YoY growth rate. Data from Similarweb reinforces the momentum: Walmart’s web traffic rose 14% and app usage jumped 22%, compared with flat web traffic and a 3% app increase for Amazon. Zooming out: Exact sales figures remain elusive, but one thing is clear: July has become a high-stakes battleground for summer spending. While Amazon may have pioneered the mid-summer shopping holiday, Walmart and others are proving it’s no longer a one-player game. A growing number of consumers are using Prime Day as a cue to comparison shop—creating real opportunities for retailers that can deliver compelling value, urgency, and convenience.
LVMH’s sales fell more than expected in Q2 in yet another sign of trouble for the luxury industry. 2025 is shaping up to be another difficult year for the luxury industry—and not only because of tariffs. While the duties are certainly hitting consumer sentiment and buying power, limited innovation and a perceived lack of value are diminishing luxury’s appeal, even among shoppers who can afford it.
The news: PayPal launched PayPal World, a global platform linking major international payment systems and digital wallets. Our take: While PayPal’s starting list of key partnerships represents Latin America, India, and China, the payment provider could penetrate further into European markets by tying up with the European Payments Initiative and the Wero wallet—as well as with top US wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay or the nascent Paze.
The news: Southwest Airlines made sweeping changes to its Chase co-branded credit cards, per a press release. Our take: Southwest cardholders are essentially earning back classic Southwest perks stripped from regular travelers. The airline likely could use the gains from higher fees on its credit cards: the budget airline sector stands to struggle as lower income Americans tighten their purse strings for personal travel—and Southwest earned 13% of its revenue from its co-brand cards Q3 2024.
Q2 earnings revealed turbulence across the travel sector as American Airlines and Southwest reported lower net income and reduced their outlooks. With US airlines and hotels likely to face more headwinds amid uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy, companies need to adjust their strategies.
In this podcast episode, we discuss Amazon’s yearly discount sales drive, Prime Day, and how it morphed into a 4-day shopping spree, the number of sales revealed on each day of shopping, how other retailers responded, and what should we expect when the holiday season approaches. Listen to the discussion with Analyst and guest host, Arielle Feger, Senior Analyst Zak Stambor, and Analyst Rachel Wolff.
Retailers have been quietly sidelining plus-size clothing and reducing in-store quantities, even though most US women wear larger sizes. This shrinking presence isn't just a bad business decision; it's out of step with consumer preferences.
The news: Capital One’s net revenues increased 25% QoQ to $12.5 billion—one of the many dramatic changes after its merger with Discover.Our take: The scale of Capital One’s merger is eyewatering. As the issuer looking to maximize its yields, it can both offer more attractive credit and debit products within a regulatory environment that is friendly to ambitious growth.
The situation: With President Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariff deadline—pushed from July 9 to August 1—fast approaching, the White House has announced the outlines of trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. Our take: This new tariff regime is already dragging on growth—and the effects are likely to deepen. Before the Trump administration rolled out its trade agenda, we expected US retail sales this year to rise 2.9% YoY, a slight increase from the 2.8% growth last year. But given the current tariff regime, we now expect sales to increase just 1.5%, which would be a real sales decrease, since that’s below the rate of inflation. We’re not alone. Goldman Sachs sees a clear deceleration ahead, citing tariffs as a likely driver of both rising prices and weakened consumer spending. And while economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal trimmed the odds of a recession to 33%—down from 45% in April—it remains well above the 22% forecast in January. In this new normal, retailers and manufacturers should prepare for sustained margin pressure, increasingly cautious consumers, and slower growth.
The challenge: Hasbro and Mattel may be signaling muted confidence with upgraded full-year outlooks—Hasbro raised its guidance and Mattel reinstated its forecast after a pause in May—but both faced the same headwind: Retailers delayed holiday inventory builds and postponed shelf resets into Q3, which weighed on Q2 results. Our take: Weak Q2 orders could set up a rebound in the back half, but Hasbro and Mattel can’t depend on their legacy brands alone to drive growth. To protect margins in a volatile market—tariffs alone could cost Hasbro up to $180 million this year (although it expects the hit to be closer to $60 million)—both companies need to trim SKUs and focus on proven winners, diversify their sourcing to cut tariff risk, and fine-tune their pricing and promotional levers. Their success will ultimately depend on their ability to adapt to shifting operational pressures.
The news: Primark is incorporating inclusive and sensory-friendly features into its kidswear line to help more children feel “comfortable and good” in their clothes, per The Retail Bulletin. Our take: Inclusivity isn’t just about doing the right thing—it’s a smart business strategy. At a time when brand loyalty is eroding—especially among Gen Z and millennial shoppers—retailers and brands that thoughtfully accommodate children with sensory sensitivities have a real opportunity. By offering products and experiences that meet these needs, they can forge lasting connections with parents who are actively seeking out solutions that make their kids feel comfortable and seen.
Athleisure brands lululemon athletica and Vuori are expanding their presence overseas as the US market cools. With the US market looking increasingly uncertain, it’s no surprise that brands like lululemon and Vuori are looking to international markets to shift growth into a new gear. This trend will likely pick up among apparel brands this year, as they look for ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs and reduce their reliance on US shoppers.
The news: Synchrony’s net revenues fell 2% YoY in Q2 2025, per its earnings release. Our take: Synchrony came off of a rocky Q1 2025 but locked down significant deals over the course of Q2 that will help drive growth through the rest of the year.
The news: 79.64% of consumers prefer going straight to their bank to resolve a dispute rather than engaging the merchant in question, per a survey by Chargebacks911. Our take: Both banks and merchants want to reserve the chargeback process for exceptional circumstances in customer care.