The news: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup posted strong Q2 2025 earnings—and warnings about Trump’s mercurial economic policies. Our take: While revenues, credit card volumes and delinquency rates reflect positively about the health of the American consumer, their lived experience remains fraught.
The news: Lloyds Bank is reportedly considering acquiring Curve for approximately $162 million, per Bloomberg. Our take: Lloyds wants to acquire Curve to avoid falling behind other alternate payment methods. However, buying a third-party wallet might not be the best solution.
While a plurality of consumers in the western hemisphere start their product searches on search engines, social media platforms are significant search launching pads for consumers in Argentina (17.8%), Brazil (16.8%), and Mexico (18.0%), according to November 2024 data from ESW and EMARKETER.
Retail media is not just for retailers anymore. US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.
The tactic: Levi Strauss is reducing its SKU count—even as it expands the range of items it sells—to minimize tariff costs and maximize full-price sales. Our take: SKU rationalization is becoming a necessity for Levi Strauss and other brands and retailers looking to manage the impact of tariffs.
The results: Amazon’s first four-day Prime Day event helped push US ecommerce sales to $24.1 billion from July 8–11—a 30.3% YoY increase, according to Adobe Digital Insights. Our take: Prime Day has cemented its place as a mid-summer shopping tentpole—and not just for Amazon. Other retailers, ranging from Dollar General to Walmart, leaned into the promotional window, turning July into a new retail battleground. Beyond sales, the event is a massive advertising opportunity. One of the under-the-radar reasons Amazon doubled the event’s length was to provide more ad inventory. Stretching Prime Day to four days gave brands more time to reach high-intent shoppers—and Amazon more room to expand its already-massive high-margin retail media business.
The situation: Despite persistent US-China trade tensions, the Chinese economy is proving more resilient than many expected. Our take: China is navigating a high-stakes global environment more deftly than expected—a promising sign for Chinese retailers. Stronger-than-anticipated export growth, solid GDP performance, and growing trade diversification point to a more stable macroeconomic backdrop. That creates an opportunity for Chinese retailers and manufacturers to tap into rising domestic demand while expanding into alternative export markets. If this momentum holds—a big if—they could potentially outpace the 2.0% YoY retail sales growth that we currently forecast.
The initiative: Urban Outfitters is teaming with HGTV to launch the “Dream Dorm Makeover Contest,” which invites students to create a Pinterest board that captures their vision for a dorm that reflects their personal style, supports their daily routines, and feels like home. Our take: The campaign is designed to help Urban Outfitters connect with Gen Z students and their parents, as well as millennials seeking creative ways to revamp small spaces.
Retailers and CPG brands may face challenges as President Donald Trump’s so-called “big, beautiful bill” takes effect, ushering in sweeping changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
Though TikTok Shop faces the dual challenges of economic instability and a tenuous presence on US app stores, marketers are still taking advantage of its positioning as both a social platform and ecommerce engine.
The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.
The news: Bilt will launch the Bilt Card 2.0 in partnership with fintech Cardless in February 2026, per a press release, after Wells Fargo ended its deeply unprofitable co-brand partnership early. Our take: Bilt Card 2.0 appears to close some of the gaps that made its partnership with Wells Fargo so rocky. With yearly fees and new deals with major US landlords, Bilt is positioning itself to make the Bilt card more successful—and more profitable.
The news: JPMorgan will charge fintechs fees to access its customers’ bank account information, per a report from Bloomberg. Our take: This fee regime would be a pivotal win for JPMorgan that would undoubtedly be emulated by other banks anxious to tap a new revenue stream.
The news: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia recorded the first year-over-year decline in delinquency rates since the fourth quarter of 2021, per a report. Our take: As consumers’ financial situation recovers, banks need to plot out their next move.
The news: Consumers increasingly see connected TV (CTV) ads as helpful during the holiday shopping season, according to LG Ad Solutions’ latest study. A growing number—59%—say CTV ads help guide holiday purchases, a 43% YoY spike. Home screen CTV ads are clicking—26% of shoppers find them helpful for purchases, up 105% YoY. For advertisers, they’re fast becoming high-impact conversion tools amid rising ad loads. Our take: As holiday shopping habits extend into events like Prime Day and Cyber Monday, advertisers that align messaging, timing, and format across CTV platforms will win both attention and conversions.
The news: The Federal Trade Commission’s “click-to-cancel” rule that would have simplified canceling subscriptions was rejected by a US federal appeals court on Tuesday, exposing a rift between the priorities of advertisers and digital service providers and those of consumers. Our take: The ruling is seen as a win for companies that use subscriptions for first-party data to strengthen their ad ecosystem, giving protection for those looking to reduce churn and run more effective programmatic and retargeting campaigns. But while advertisers may benefit from the decision, consumers still want an easier process—and simplifying cancellations can benefit businesses in several ways.
The news: Ulta Beauty acquired upscale UK beauty retailer Space NK for an undisclosed amount, the company said, as it turns to new markets to offset slowing US growth. Our take: The US beauty market is becoming increasingly saturated as more retailers lean on the category to boost sluggish sales. While expanding to new markets comes with its own set of challenges, Ulta’s decision to rely on acquisitions and distribution partnerships will help smooth its path.
The news: PayPal rolled out a dynamic, AI-powered scam alert system to protect consumers against fraud for “Friends and Family” transactions. Our take: Rolling out user-facing AI-powered fraud protection alerts increases PayPal’s visibility as a safe financial provider for more than just online checkout at well-known retailers.
The news: Early Warnings Services’ Zelle submitted a letter in response to the Treasury Department’s request for information on paperless payment services. Our take: Winning this contract would dramatically boost Zelle’s payment volume, but it faces steep competition from incumbents and other structural roadblocks.
The news: American Express rolled out special London-based perks and offerings as a part of its Adventures with Amex series. Our take: Sixty percent of respondents to Amex’s Global Travel Trend Report planned on taking at least one trip for a sporting event this year. Hitching its London adventure rollout to both F1 and Wimbledon can get those travelers to book through Amex’s platform instead of a competitor’s.