Retail & Ecommerce

The trend: Consumer packaged goods brands are prioritizing profitability as macroeconomic headwinds reshape consumer behavior. For example, Kimberly-Clark is selling a majority stake in its international tissue business to Suzano and P&G is cutting roughly 15% of its global nonmanufacturing workforce. Our take: While short-term headwinds may be driving CPG companies’ actions, portfolio reassessment is a valuable exercise in any economic climate. Those that take the time to find efficiencies that enable them to emerge stronger and more agile will be better positioned for long-term success than companies simply focused on cutting costs.

The insight: Discounters are experiencing a resurgence as concerns about rising prices and economic stability spur shoppers of all income levels to seek out bargain retailers. Our take: The uncertain environment in many ways benefits Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below, whose value initiatives are enabling them to win spending from cautious consumers. But—as with the broader retail industry—tariffs are a costly challenge for all three, particularly as they try to minimize price hikes and maintain their value advantage.

Along with expanded access to Pay with Venmo and a buzzy ad campaign, Venmo is trying to reach key demographics.

Centralized payment options and automating spend threshold One Credential can help to keep PayPal products top-of-wallet for Gen Z.

The news: Shein’s and Temu’s influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers’ loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

With account integration ending for Android wallets, PayPal sets its sights on keeping more users within its own ecosystem.

The news: Lululemon beat earnings expectations and met revenue forecasts in Q1, but softening demand in its core Americas market cast a shadow over the results. Our take: Even premium brands aren’t immune to macro pressures. As consumers grow increasingly cost-conscious, discretionary purchases—especially those with big price tags—are easy for consumers to postpone. Lululemon’s challenge now is not just product innovation, but convincing shoppers its value proposition is worth the premium.

The news: Clickthrough rates on Google Search for home improvement content fell steadily through 2024, according to Industry KPI data from Databox, as the US housing market languished. Our take: With nothing to ease affordability constraints and high interest rates, home improvement activity and search performance are likely to remain subdued. Retailers that emphasize value-oriented, do-it-yourself home products in their content and marketing will be better positioned to capture sales as the housing market takes time to recover.

On today’s podcast episode, we check in on how retailers’ financials are looking this year, different approaches to inventory, and what Q2 is telling us. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Senior Analysts Blake Droesch and Zak Stambor.

29.5% of consumers say tariff-fueled price hikes would immediately impact their buying habits, and only 2.3% say their buying habits wouldn’t be impacted at all by price, according to a February 2025 Omnisend survey.

The insight: The gap between Target and its mass merchant competitors Amazon and Walmart is widening. While Amazon and Walmart are consolidating their grip on consumer spending after investments in value and convenience, Target’s largely discretionary assortment and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) controversies are sharply curbing its appeal. Our take: Shoppers are prioritizing necessities over discretionary goods and favoring retailers that offer value and convenience.

The news: Spirit Halloween canceled its annual kickoff event due to “international disruptions and supply chain challenges,” it said in a social media post. Our take: While the retailer did not directly cite tariffs, it is the latest warning sign that President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties could result in emptier shelves during key shopping seasons.

Multicultural adtech is becoming essential: Mundial’s privacy-first model helps brands reach a $4 trillion Hispanic market with precision.

Nonalcoholic beer set to overtake ale as world’s second-largest beer category: Younger consumers drive the growth as they consume less alcohol.

Almost three-fourths (74%) of consumers prefer to shop in-store for alcoholic beverages versus only buying them online (7%), according to March data from ThinkNow Research.

Travel demand is becoming harder to predict: Consumers are waiting until the last moment to make plans as uncertainty complicates spending decisions.

Dollar General benefits from “trade-in” behavior among wealthier shoppers: The retailer boosted its outlook as discretionary spending from higher-income consumers offset lower-income caution.

Chinese consumers’ travel spending softened during a recent holiday: That’s a clear sign that confidence is strained due to trade tensions with the US.

Global fintech revenues increased by 21% YoY in 2024, a strong increase from 13% in the previous year, per Boston Consulting Group and QED Investor’s Global Fintech Report. Challenger banks such as Monzo, Nubank, and Resolut fueled impressive 23% revenue growth in the deposit vertical. Trading and investment fintech revenues grew 21%, and Insurance fintechs measured 40% growth. Fintechs need to drill down into key demographics like digital natives, the unbanked, and the underbanked. Scaled fintechs can also focus on merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities.