Etsy and eBay see opportunity to gain share as tariffs burden their competitors and consumers adjust their spending habits. Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from renewed interest in resale as tariffs make buying new more expensive for shoppers. The two platforms also now face less competition from Shein, Temu, and Amazon in online ad auctions—allowing them to be more efficient with marketing spend and reach more potential customers. While neither eBay nor Etsy is fully immune from the effects of tariffs—and their potential drag on the economy and consumer confidence—they are less exposed than most other retailers.
Amazon shrugged off tariff concerns in its Q2 earnings report, after reporting growth ahead of expectations. But the retailer’s Q3 forecast was murky, suggesting that while consumer demand remains resilient, uncertainty from tariffs and trade policy—along with extensive investments in AI—could weigh heavily on its bottom line. Amazon’s strong quarter and Q3 sales guidance help dispel some fears about the health of the consumer. But its decision to once again offer an unusually broad profit range for the next quarter shows considerable uncertainty about the impact the Trump administration’s trade policies will have on retailers’ costs.
The news: Mastercard and Visa reported strong revenue growth in their most recent quarters. Visa’s net revenues rose 14% YoY in its fiscal year Q3 (ended June 30, 2025). Mastercard’s net revenues for the period rose 17% YoY. Our take: Both Visa and Mastercard understand that they need to innovate to keep their infrastructure competitive in light of the explosion of alternative payment rails—most recently stablecoin initiatives, made possible by the recent passage of the Genius Act.
The news: PayPal posted net revenue growth of 5% YoY at $8.3 billion due to strong performances of Venmo, its debit card, and Braintree, per its earnings report. Our take: PayPal is leaning into its branded experience and tech innovations to power its way through 2025.
The news: JPMorgan Chase is reportedly in late-stage talks to take over the Apple Card portfolio from Goldman Sachs, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Apple needs a stable financial partner after a rough road with Goldman Sachs’ regulatory scrutiny and failed experiment with consumer banking.
Consumer goods giants Kraft Heinz and Unilever are moving to stimulate demand in a challenging sales climate by increasing marketing spending on their most popular products. Both companies are betting on marketing to spur demand and improve brand equity in a slower-growth climate. But the question is whether stepped-up marketing will be enough to overcome rising consumer caution, particularly in categories like snacks and personal care, where purchases are more discretionary in a tariff-driven environment. Increased investments in promotions could pressure margins in coming quarters.
The news: Best Buy is testing a store-within-a-store concept with Ikea, aimed at helping customers more seamlessly integrate its appliances into Ikea-designed kitchens and laundry rooms. This marks the first time the Swedish retailer has offered services and products within another US retailer. Our take: Pairing two well-known, purpose-driven brands around a shared customer use case—home design and functionality—is a smart play. The in-person branded experience should provide value to shoppers and offer a win-win path to renewed relevance and growth for both companies.
The situation: Amazon and Google, once bound by a symbiotic relationship in which Amazon funneled ad dollars into Google Search and Google indexed Amazon’s pages, are now veering toward open conflict as generative AI (genAI) blurs the lines between ecommerce, advertising, and search. Both companies are determined to own the entire journey from discovery to checkout, and that ambition is unraveling what remains of their former détente. Our take: Amazon and Google are racing to define where and how consumers discover and buy products in the genAI era. If Amazon succeeds in walling off its marketplace data and steering shoppers to its own AI interfaces, the retail landscape could splinter into walled gardens where tech giants cooperate far less. That winner‑takes‑all dynamic might suit the victors, but it risks degrading the overall consumer experience with fewer choices and less transparent pricing. At the same time, it could lead brands and retailers into a margin‑sapping race to the bottom inside whichever closed ecosystem proves most dominant.
The news: Publicis Groupe has won PayPal’s global media business, building on the holding company’s winning streak and proving to rivals that its momentum in securing major accounts shows no signs of slowing. WPP Media previously handled PayPal’s media account but resigned the account in April, citing the need to “pursue other opportunities,” per Ad Age. Our take: Publicis’ win of PayPal’s global media business underscores a growing advertiser shift toward integrated partnerships, where creative, media, and retail strategies merge to unlock greater performance and monetization potential.
The news: President Donald Trump signed an executive order to close the so-called de minimis trade loophole, which allows foreign packages valued under $800 to enter the US tariff-free. Effective August 29, all shipments under that threshold—regardless of origin—will be subject to duties based on value and country of origin. The White House already ended the exemption for packages from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.
The data: US consumer spending inched up just 1.4% YoY in Q2, per the US Commerce Department. While that’s up from the tepid 0.5% in Q1, it’s well below the 2.8% growth in spending in 2024, and the fifth-slowest rate since Q3 2021. Goods spending rose 2.2% YoY, up from 0.1% the prior quarter, while services spending increased 1.1% YoY, ahead of the 0.6% in Q1. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.
As tariffs push prices up, consumers are reevaluating their brand loyalties—and many are walking away for good. What once felt like long-term relationships are now being tested by sticker shock, with even high-income shoppers turning to discount retailers and finding satisfaction in switching.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the unofficial list of the most interesting retailers for the month of July. Each month, our analysts Arielle Feger, Becky Schilling, and Vice President of Content and guest host, Suzy Davidkhanian (aka The Committee) put together a very unofficial list of the top eight retailers they're watching based on which are making the most interesting moves: Who's launching new initiatives? Which partnerships are moving the needle? Which standout marketing campaigns are being created? In this month's episode, Committee members Arielle Feger and Suzy Davidkhanian will defend their list against Senior Analyst Blake Droesch, and Principal Analyst Sky Canaves, who will dispute the power rankings by attempting to move retailers up, down, on, or off the list.
The triopoly looks stronger, but it's digital that's getting bigger. Amazon, Google, and Meta now command 58.8% of total US ad dollars, up from 47.1% in 2020. But that's not an indication that the triopoly's control of the digital ad market is growing.
The challenges: UPS’ turnaround remains in the early innings due to structural inefficiencies, operational missteps, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds. Our take: UPS faces a difficult road ahead. The company is actively trying to streamline operations—planning to shutter up to 10% of its buildings, downsize its fleet, and reduce its US workforce to better align with leaner volumes. It’s also trimming low-margin business, notably cutting back on Amazon deliveries, which made up as much as 11.8% of its total revenues last year, in an effort to prioritize more profitable shipments. Still, with demand under pressure and cost headwinds mounting, stabilizing performance will be an uphill climb.
The news: D2C brand Quince is now valued at $4.5 billion following a $200 million funding round, per Bloomberg. That’s more than double its valuation from earlier this year and marks its second successful fundraising attempt in six months. Quince’s meteoric rise reflects the normalization of dupe culture. Shoppers are no longer making decisions solely on brand name and are gravitating toward companies that offer a compelling combination of affordability and quality.
The news: Citigroup unveiled the Citi Strata Elite Card, its new premium card, per a press release. However, its rewards package lacks some of the flexibility that its peer card, Sapphire Reserve, holds in travel booking. While Reserve cardholders are more handsomely rewarded when booking through Chase travel platforms, members still receive points for booking travel directly—Strata Elite members lack that privilege.
The news: Cash App launched “pools”—a feature to make group payments frictionless—to a limited number of US-based users with plans for a later wider rollout, per a press release. Our take: Cash App wants to cement itself among Gen Z users, households making up to $150,000 annually, and the populations traditionally overlooked by legacy financial institutions.
The news: PayPal will enable Pay with Crypto in an attempt to streamline cross-border payments for US merchants through its intricate network of digital wallet and cryptocurrency integrations in the coming weeks. In the meantime, US consumers will have to break age-old payment habits: Only 8% of crypto owners who use cryptocurrency to purchase goods and services do so daily; most only use it up to four times a year. Building these consumer payment preferences will take time, so PayPal should remain patient.
The news: WPP Media launched a “first-of-its-kind activation” with ad-tech company Criteo, marking the first big advancement in WPP’s “Open Intelligence” data platform for connected TV (CTV). The activation, built to offer “more value for advertisers," is currently being tested with Samsung, Roku, and Scripps. While more specific details were not provided, WPP Media stated in a press release that the pilot provides “premium supply with real-time commerce signals” from Criteo. Our take: WPP Media and Criteo’s partnership solidifies CTV as a performance-centric channel, giving advertisers new tools to target high-intent shoppers and drive measurable outcomes at scale.