This year, Amazon extended its July Prime Day event from two to four days, giving consumers more time to shop, brands more opportunities to advertise, and Amazon more time to generate sales.
Ocado Ads has partnered with data collaboration platform Permutive to make its first-party purchase data available to select UK publishers.
The situation: The US housing market is in rough shape, as homes aren’t selling, yet prices keep climbing. In June—typically the spring peak—existing-home sales fell 2.7% MoM, while the median price hit a record $435,300, per the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This spring marked the weakest selling season since 2012, with just 1.39 million contracts signed from April to June, per Redfin. That was down 9.7% from last year, which was also a weak sales season. Our take: With transactions stalled and prices still climbing, the housing market offers little short-term relief. For retailers tethered to homeownership and moving cycles, that’s a stubborn headwind—especially as tariff costs rise and consumers grow more selective about their discretionary spend. Retailers tied to housing can keep sales going by highlighting their affordable products as well as the long-term value of items like appliances and furniture.
emu’s attempts to tariff-proof its business are running into opposition from regulators and sellers alike. The company has been accused of failing to protect EU users from illegal products. Efforts to woo US sellers to its marketplace are also running aground as companies and merchants refuse to sell products on Temu for less than what they retail for on Amazon. For all its troubles, we expect Temu’s US ecommerce sales to rise 13.5% this year, which would be the second-fastest rate of growth among the companies we track—but a far cry from the triple-digit increases it enjoyed over the past few years. With governments increasingly unfavorable to its business tactics—and Amazon increasingly inclined to flex its market power—Temu will need a new playbook to navigate the current era of uncertainty and tariffs.
President Donald Trump said the US will set a global “baseline” tariff in the 15%–20% range, up from the 10% rate he outlined in April. Our take: Steep tariffs are the new normal. Consumers currently face an average effective tariff of 18.2%—17.3% after adjusting for spending shifts—the highest since the 1930s, per Yale Budget Lab.
The contrast: At a time when many big box retailers are struggling, Tractor Supply Co. bucked the trend by delivering its strongest sales growth in two years—up 4.5% YoY to $4.44 billion—driven in part by solid momentum in big-ticket purchases. That performance stands in stark contrast to peers like Target and Home Depot, which have seen consumers pull back on discretionary and high-priced items. Our take: Tractor Supply’s formula is simple: high-quality experience + strong loyalty program + scale = growth. It delights shoppers, rewards them, and keeps expanding its footprint. That approach is helping it outrun the macro headwinds—and its largely US-sourced assortment leaves it better insulated from tariff and supply shocks than many other merchants.
The volatile macroeconomic environment is causing most shoppers to be more cautious with their spending, but it’s also driving a subset to spend more in search of comfort. Roughly 2 in 5 shoppers (38%) say that the current stress of economic uncertainty is making them spend more, according to a June LendingTree survey. Consumers may be choosing to spend more of their money on essentials, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be swayed to spend a little extra on the occasional indulgence—particularly if there’s an element of novelty, or if the purchase offers a sense of emotional comfort. While the Labubu craze is likely to fizzle out as quickly as it started, shoppers will remain as eager as ever to splurge on small luxuries that bring them satisfaction.
The news: Fiserv’s organic revenues grew 8% in Q2, per its earnings release. Our take: Fiserv’s Clover faces a stacked market with Shift4, Square, and Toast all offering competitive POS solutions for SMBs.
The news: New account openings were down 5% across Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and American Express during Q2 2025, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Issuers are going to chase opportunities to increase their payment volume, which explains targeted efforts to boost luxury travel and dining rewards. But looking long-term, banks need to think strategically about loosening their credit guidelines.
The news: Mastercard rolled out the AI Card Design Studio, which lets consumers and small businesses at participating banks personalize the front of their card, including with AI-generated images and designs. Our take: Mastercard offering a free, AI-based design feature lets businesses and customers maximize their design flexibility and the emotional impact of their products. (Remember customized checks with family photos?)
The trend: While rising cost-consciousness is causing consumers to think twice before indulging in a burrito, they’re still saying yes to a splurge-worthy drink. Beverages have emerged as one of the hottest growth categories in US foodservice, offering quick-service restaurants (QSRs) a high-margin way to boost traffic and ticket sizes amid inflation fatigue. Sales at beverage- and snack-focused chains surged 9.6% in 2024—the largest annual growth of any restaurant category, according to Technomic data cited by The Wall Street Journal. For comparison, burger chains—despite generating more total sales—grew just 1.4% over the same period. Our take: The beverage boom is fueled by novelty, shifting habits, and the hunt for higher margins. Consumers are stressed. Amid economic uncertainty, nearly half (44%) of consumers turn to comfort or junk food to cope—and specialty drinks offer a relatively affordable way to indulge without breaking the bank. They crave novelty. Limited-time drinks with bold flavors, bright colors, and TikTok appeal are strong traffic drivers, especially among Gen Z, who are eager to try what’s new while it lasts. Younger consumers are drinking less alcohol. As Gen Z and millennials cut back on alcohol, drinks like iced coffees, chillers, and fruity refreshers are filling the social gap with fun, flavorful alternatives. Chains are chasing margins. Beverages typically carry higher profit margins than food and are often (but not always) operationally easier to tweak. Adding a new syrup or topping is simpler than introducing a new entrée, making drinks an efficient way to drive both sales and excitement.
Deckers and Puma are proceeding with caution as tariffs complicate US operations and consumer sentiment. Of the two companies, Deckers is better equipped to manage the uncertain environment. It has considerably more pricing power than Puma, giving it more room to offset tariff costs. It also has significantly more runway to grow outside the US: International revenues surged 50% in Q1, while Puma is facing weakness in Asia and Europe in addition to North America.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss how retail media is impacting traditional search marketing, and how marketers can best leverage themselves on the wave of new retail media network platforms. Then, we break down how AI tools will affect the future of paid search advertising. Join our conversation with guest host and Director of Reports Editing, Rahul Chadha, Principal Analyst, Sarah Marzano, and Senior Analyst, Max Willens. Listen everywhere you find podcasts and watch on YouTube and Spotify.
41% of US buy now, pay later (BNPL) users have bought clothing, shoes, and outfit accessories with the services, according to April data from LendingTree and QuestionPro.
The news: Facing mounting pressure from ChatGPT and other platforms, Google Shopping is stepping up its game to stay ahead in the product discovery race. Our take: The best way for Google to fend off the competition is by making Shopping indispensable. Features that mimic personal stylists, surface the right deals at the right time, and boost shoppers’ confidence through virtual try-ons can help ensure consumers keep turning to Google as their shopping companion.
The results: Walmart’s decision to directly overlap its “Deals” event with Amazon's four-day Prime Day sale appears to have paid off. Spending on Walmart.com surged 24% YoY during its promotion that ended July 13, according to credit and debit card transaction data from Bloomberg Second Measure—six times Amazon Prime Day’s YoY growth rate. Data from Similarweb reinforces the momentum: Walmart’s web traffic rose 14% and app usage jumped 22%, compared with flat web traffic and a 3% app increase for Amazon. Zooming out: Exact sales figures remain elusive, but one thing is clear: July has become a high-stakes battleground for summer spending. While Amazon may have pioneered the mid-summer shopping holiday, Walmart and others are proving it’s no longer a one-player game. A growing number of consumers are using Prime Day as a cue to comparison shop—creating real opportunities for retailers that can deliver compelling value, urgency, and convenience.
The news: PayPal launched PayPal World, a global platform linking major international payment systems and digital wallets. Our take: While PayPal’s starting list of key partnerships represents Latin America, India, and China, the payment provider could penetrate further into European markets by tying up with the European Payments Initiative and the Wero wallet—as well as with top US wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay or the nascent Paze.
The news: Southwest Airlines made sweeping changes to its Chase co-branded credit cards, per a press release. Our take: Southwest cardholders are essentially earning back classic Southwest perks stripped from regular travelers. The airline likely could use the gains from higher fees on its credit cards: the budget airline sector stands to struggle as lower income Americans tighten their purse strings for personal travel—and Southwest earned 13% of its revenue from its co-brand cards Q3 2024.
As more consumers start GLP-1 treatments, some CPG brands must work harder to stay in shopping carts. As many GLP-1 users eat less and change their diets, it opens new challenges and opportunities for retailers and marketers.
LVMH’s sales fell more than expected in Q2 in yet another sign of trouble for the luxury industry. 2025 is shaping up to be another difficult year for the luxury industry—and not only because of tariffs. While the duties are certainly hitting consumer sentiment and buying power, limited innovation and a perceived lack of value are diminishing luxury’s appeal, even among shoppers who can afford it.