Retail & Ecommerce

The split screen: There’s a growing divide between affluent consumers and everyone else. Our take: It’s tempting to look at top-line numbers—like June retail sales—and assume the economy is holding steady. But much of the resilience is concentrated at the top. Moody’s estimates the wealthiest 10% of households—those earning $250,000 or more—now account for half of all US consumer spending, up from about one-third in the early 1990s. That dynamic helps explain why luxury brands like Burberry and RH continue to post gains, while value-focused chains like McDonald’s are seeing signs of softening demand. As inequality widens and economic anxiety builds, especially amid persistent inflation and trade uncertainty, the US economy looks increasingly bifurcated.

The insight: Amazon’s decision to double the length of its Prime Day sale delivered significant rewards for its advertising business—as we said it would. The takeaway: The first four-day Prime Day was an important learning experience for brands. With the event unlikely to get any shorter, sellers will need to be more precise about their ad strategy—focusing spending on times of day when shoppers are more likely to buy, or saving the bulk of their budgets for end-of-sale urgency.

The news: Bank of America notched a record second quarter for revenues, per Bloomberg. Revenues totaled $26.61 billion, lower than analysts’ anticipated $26.72 billion. Our take: Bank of America’s tight underwriting standards—its average credit cardholder FICO score is 777—have created a strong stable of superprime cardholders to drive volume through tempting rewards offerings.

The news: Cash App rolled out an extra layer of protection for minors’ P2P payments, with automatic flagging for sponsors (parents or guardians) to approve risky requests. Our take: Attracting young users at the beginning of their financial lives can yield long-term loyalty to the app.

The news: US retail sales rose 0.6% MoM in June, per the Commerce Department, well ahead of the projected 0.1% increase. On a YoY basis, sales were up a healthy 3.9%, a sign of consumers’ resilience in the face of considerable uncertainty. Our take: June’s upbeat sales report underscores the volatility of the current retail landscape. While consumers may currently feel secure enough to manage rising prices, that could quickly change as tariff-related cost increases begin to hit more directly.

The news: Mastercard launched the World Legend Mastercard, a premium card for higher-spending customers, alongside an overhaul of rewards and perks across the entire Mastercard Collection. Our take: We anticipate that card networks will jockey for the most premium cards as issuers cater to wealthy consumers’ reward wish lists.

The news: Circle K owner Alimentation Couche-Tard has dropped its bid to buy Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, casting doubt on whether the 7-Eleven operator’s planned US IPO will proceed, Bloomberg reported. Our take: As 7-Eleven continues efforts to strengthen its core business, the failed takeover bid offers lessons for retailers and brands. Decisions involving globally recognized brands should be strategic, not reactive. Retailers must maintain flexibility to revisit IPO or spin-off plans as business circumstances change.