Q2 earnings revealed turbulence across the travel sector as American Airlines and Southwest reported lower net income and reduced their outlooks. With US airlines and hotels likely to face more headwinds amid uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy, companies need to adjust their strategies.
In this podcast episode, we discuss Amazon’s yearly discount sales drive, Prime Day, and how it morphed into a 4-day shopping spree, the number of sales revealed on each day of shopping, how other retailers responded, and what should we expect when the holiday season approaches. Listen to the discussion with Analyst and guest host, Arielle Feger, Senior Analyst Zak Stambor, and Analyst Rachel Wolff.
The news: Capital One’s net revenues increased 25% QoQ to $12.5 billion—one of the many dramatic changes after its merger with Discover.Our take: The scale of Capital One’s merger is eyewatering. As the issuer looking to maximize its yields, it can both offer more attractive credit and debit products within a regulatory environment that is friendly to ambitious growth.
The situation: With President Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariff deadline—pushed from July 9 to August 1—fast approaching, the White House has announced the outlines of trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. Our take: This new tariff regime is already dragging on growth—and the effects are likely to deepen. Before the Trump administration rolled out its trade agenda, we expected US retail sales this year to rise 2.9% YoY, a slight increase from the 2.8% growth last year. But given the current tariff regime, we now expect sales to increase just 1.5%, which would be a real sales decrease, since that’s below the rate of inflation. We’re not alone. Goldman Sachs sees a clear deceleration ahead, citing tariffs as a likely driver of both rising prices and weakened consumer spending. And while economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal trimmed the odds of a recession to 33%—down from 45% in April—it remains well above the 22% forecast in January. In this new normal, retailers and manufacturers should prepare for sustained margin pressure, increasingly cautious consumers, and slower growth.
The challenge: Hasbro and Mattel may be signaling muted confidence with upgraded full-year outlooks—Hasbro raised its guidance and Mattel reinstated its forecast after a pause in May—but both faced the same headwind: Retailers delayed holiday inventory builds and postponed shelf resets into Q3, which weighed on Q2 results. Our take: Weak Q2 orders could set up a rebound in the back half, but Hasbro and Mattel can’t depend on their legacy brands alone to drive growth. To protect margins in a volatile market—tariffs alone could cost Hasbro up to $180 million this year (although it expects the hit to be closer to $60 million)—both companies need to trim SKUs and focus on proven winners, diversify their sourcing to cut tariff risk, and fine-tune their pricing and promotional levers. Their success will ultimately depend on their ability to adapt to shifting operational pressures.
Retailers have been quietly sidelining plus-size clothing and reducing in-store quantities, even though most US women wear larger sizes. This shrinking presence isn't just a bad business decision; it's out of step with consumer preferences.
The news: Primark is incorporating inclusive and sensory-friendly features into its kidswear line to help more children feel “comfortable and good” in their clothes, per The Retail Bulletin. Our take: Inclusivity isn’t just about doing the right thing—it’s a smart business strategy. At a time when brand loyalty is eroding—especially among Gen Z and millennial shoppers—retailers and brands that thoughtfully accommodate children with sensory sensitivities have a real opportunity. By offering products and experiences that meet these needs, they can forge lasting connections with parents who are actively seeking out solutions that make their kids feel comfortable and seen.
Athleisure brands lululemon athletica and Vuori are expanding their presence overseas as the US market cools. With the US market looking increasingly uncertain, it’s no surprise that brands like lululemon and Vuori are looking to international markets to shift growth into a new gear. This trend will likely pick up among apparel brands this year, as they look for ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs and reduce their reliance on US shoppers.
The news: Synchrony’s net revenues fell 2% YoY in Q2 2025, per its earnings release. Our take: Synchrony came off of a rocky Q1 2025 but locked down significant deals over the course of Q2 that will help drive growth through the rest of the year.
The news: 79.64% of consumers prefer going straight to their bank to resolve a dispute rather than engaging the merchant in question, per a survey by Chargebacks911. Our take: Both banks and merchants want to reserve the chargeback process for exceptional circumstances in customer care.
The news: Klarna partnered with Poshmark so US buyers can resell Klarna purchases on Poshmark through the Klarna app. Our take: Gen Zers have a hunger for low-cost fashion. As fast fashion brands face mounting tariff pressures, Gen Zers may turn toward resale marketplaces to some from someone else’s closet—and use sales from their own closet to fund that shopping.
40.6% of US adults have researched a product or company after encountering an ad for it in-store, according to March 2025 data from Placer.ai and EMARKETER.
In-store retail media has long been a mysterious black box for marketers—hard to measure and optimize. But thanks to first-party shopper data and AI-driven measurement tools, that’s changing. Marketers can now pinpoint how shoppers engage with in-store campaigns and tie those interactions directly to sales.
Key stat: The number of retail media networks (RMNs) worldwide offering competitive conquesting (the ability to target campaigns to competitors’ shoppers) has risen from 10 in Q2 2024 to 15 in Q2 2025, a 50% increase, according to data from Mars United Commerce.
UK shoppers will purchase £4.8 billion ($6.1 billion) worth of secondhand products online this year, according to a report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) commissioned by Amazon. That’s up nearly 12% YoY, as consumers look for ways to shop that are easier on their budgets and the environment. Retailers that lack a robust resale or refurbishment strategy risk losing out. Platforms like Vinted, Depop, and Amazon are meeting rising consumer demand for more sustainable—and affordable—products. Establishing an official program can set new consumer expectations for retail while easing common fears about shopping secondhand, including concerns about item condition and seller trust.
The situation: President Trump’s shifting trade policies are introducing fresh volatility across sourcing, pricing, and promotional planning—setting the stage for an incredibly uncertain holiday shopping season. Our take: Tariffs and uncertainty will weigh heavily on consumers this holiday season. Retailers must meet shoppers where they are: cautious, price-sensitive, and focused on making each dollar count. That means doubling down on value, highlighting affordability, and offering practical or emotionally resonant gifts that justify the spend and move shoppers to buy.
Starbucks is taking a different approach to its much-hyped Pumpkin Spice Latte this year. Rather than pulling the launch forward, as it has done for the past several years, the drink will make its debut on August 26—four days later than in 2024, and the PSL’s latest launch date since 2022. Delaying the launch slightly could build excitement over Starbucks’ fall menu, and encourage customers to visit more often once the PSL hits stores. The move might also lift sales for Starbucks’ grocery assortment—especially given the current popularity of at-home coffee brewing—which could in turn help offset the company’s in-store softness. Still, the enduring popularity of the PSL alone won’t be enough to lift Starbucks out of its slump.
The strategy: Despite ongoing economic headwinds, Domino’s delivered solid Q2 growth across all income levels by doubling down on value and innovation—key pillars of its Hungry for More growth strategy. CEO Russell Weiner noted during the company’s earnings call that Domino’s has consistently gained about 1 percentage point of market share annually over the past decade—and sees ample opportunity to build on that momentum and further outpace rivals. Our take: Domino’s is proving that even in a challenging, price-sensitive environment, smart innovation and a sharp value proposition can drive growth across income cohorts. By blending crave-worthy new items like stuffed crust pizza with a more personalized loyalty experience and increased delivery flexibility, the brand is positioning itself to win market share from slower-moving rivals.
Last November, our analysts made some predictions about how the retail category would fare in 2025. Now that we’re halfway through the year, it’s time to check back in on what has (or hasn’t) happened. "We're seeing many of our predicted trends playing out, though not always in the ways we anticipated," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian on a recent episode of the "Behind the Numbers" podcast. "The retail landscape is evolving rapidly, with some developments accelerating faster than expected while others face unexpected headwinds."