The news: Walmart introduced a private label for tweens, Weekend Academy, just in time for the back-to-school shopping season. Our take: As Target proved, retailers that use their private labels to deliver on-trend products at affordable prices can win big with shoppers. While Walmart hasn’t always been known as a destination for stylish products, its growing investments in its store brands could help it capitalize on Target’s fading “Tarzhay” magic and become a go-to for value- and design-conscious shoppers.
On today's podcast episode, we discuss the state of some of our 2025 predictions, including GenAI’s influence on business growth, the influence of China’s e-commerce disruptors, the squeeze on retail media networks, and more. Then, we offer a few more slightly spicier predictions for the remainder of the year ahead. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Vice President Suzy Davidkhanian and Senior Analyst Carina Perkins.
Ecommerce share varies greatly across categories. The average ecommerce penetration across US retail sales of 16.7% masks wide disparities: Rates range from as high as 70.1% for books, music, & video to just 5.9% for auto & parts.
The trend: US consumers are pulling back on summer vacations. The average trip budget has dropped 25.4% YoY to $3,132, per an Ipsos survey for Generali Global Assistance. Our take: The pullback in travel spending is a canary in the coal mine. As economic anxiety deepens, more consumers will likely pull back further, scrutinize discretionary purchases, and double down on value. Retailers, brands, and travel companies should brace for a more cautious consumer in the second half of the year. To stay competitive, they should look for opportunities to: Sharpen their value messaging to align with price-sensitive mindsets; Stay closely attuned to shifting consumer sentiment through ongoing survey and trend analysis; Position themselves as allies in financial wellness, offering not just products, but practical ways to help consumers stretch their dollars further.
The data points: Nearly 3 in 4 back-to-school shoppers expect to spend the same or more this fall, and more than 1 in 3 parents anticipate spending more than they did in 2024, per a PwC consumer survey. This suggests that even as consumers brace for higher prices—a consistent finding across University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys—demand remains resilient. Our take: The survey findings square with our back-to-school forecast, which expects sales to rise 3.0% YoY, down from 3.3% last year, marking the second consecutive year of declining growth. Retail ecommerce back-to-school sales are set to increase 6.8%, a deceleration from last year’s 7.4% gain. Though consumers are still spending, they’re becoming more selective. Retailers will need to lead with promotions, value-driven assortments, and early-season deals to capture share in this more cautious shopping environment.
The news: Inflation ticked up in June in a sign that companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers. Our take: June’s CPI data shows the toll tariffs are beginning to take on consumers’ buying power. While real wage growth remains in positive territory for now, that could change quickly once more companies begin to pass on a greater share of tariff costs to consumers, as the vast majority have signaled they’ll do.
The news: Shopify will not allow agents and other bots to purchase on users’ behalf without “final human review,” the company said in an update to the code used by merchants to operate their online storefronts. Our take: While AI agents aren’t yet reliable enough to be given free reign over purchase decisions, companies have to be prepared for a future where they soon will be.
The news: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup posted strong Q2 2025 earnings—and warnings about Trump’s mercurial economic policies. Our take: While revenues, credit card volumes and delinquency rates reflect positively about the health of the American consumer, their lived experience remains fraught.
The news: Lloyds Bank is reportedly considering acquiring Curve for approximately $162 million, per Bloomberg. Our take: Lloyds wants to acquire Curve to avoid falling behind other alternate payment methods. However, buying a third-party wallet might not be the best solution.
66% of U.S. adults have reduced nonessential shopping to manage expenses, according to March 2025 data from CivicScience.
The situation: Strong performances in ecommerce and pharmacy helped Albertsons beat top- and bottom-line expectations despite continued pressure across the grocery industry. Albertsons is also winning over more shoppers by making its loyalty program more rewarding and easier to use. Membership rose 14% in the quarter thanks to more deals, simpler ways to earn points, and bigger cash-back perks. Our take: Consumers remain laser-focused on value, especially at the grocery store. While food inflation has eased since the sharp spikes of 2021 to 2023, the impact of those increases—plus the threat of new tariff-driven price hikes—has shoppers watching their grocery bills closely. Albertsons’ 14% growth in loyalty membership last quarter signals just how eager consumers are for savings. With more people eating at home to stretch their dollars, Albertsons’ value-focused approach helped it outperform expectations and could drive strength in coming quarters.
The news: Comscore, iSpot, and VideoAmp passed the Joint Industry Committee’s (JIC) midterm audit to maintain certification for the 2025-2026 broadcast season. Our take: The JIC’s certification and sports-heavy audit process could help iSpot, Comscore, and VideoAmp gain ground on Nielsen.
While a plurality of consumers in the western hemisphere start their product searches on search engines, social media platforms are significant search launching pads for consumers in Argentina (17.8%), Brazil (16.8%), and Mexico (18.0%), according to November 2024 data from ESW and EMARKETER.
Retail media is not just for retailers anymore. US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.
The results: Amazon’s first four-day Prime Day event helped push US ecommerce sales to $24.1 billion from July 8–11—a 30.3% YoY increase, according to Adobe Digital Insights. Our take: Prime Day has cemented its place as a mid-summer shopping tentpole—and not just for Amazon. Other retailers, ranging from Dollar General to Walmart, leaned into the promotional window, turning July into a new retail battleground. Beyond sales, the event is a massive advertising opportunity. One of the under-the-radar reasons Amazon doubled the event’s length was to provide more ad inventory. Stretching Prime Day to four days gave brands more time to reach high-intent shoppers—and Amazon more room to expand its already-massive high-margin retail media business.
The situation: Despite persistent US-China trade tensions, the Chinese economy is proving more resilient than many expected. Our take: China is navigating a high-stakes global environment more deftly than expected—a promising sign for Chinese retailers. Stronger-than-anticipated export growth, solid GDP performance, and growing trade diversification point to a more stable macroeconomic backdrop. That creates an opportunity for Chinese retailers and manufacturers to tap into rising domestic demand while expanding into alternative export markets. If this momentum holds—a big if—they could potentially outpace the 2.0% YoY retail sales growth that we currently forecast.
The tactic: Levi Strauss is reducing its SKU count—even as it expands the range of items it sells—to minimize tariff costs and maximize full-price sales. Our take: SKU rationalization is becoming a necessity for Levi Strauss and other brands and retailers looking to manage the impact of tariffs.
Though TikTok Shop faces the dual challenges of economic instability and a tenuous presence on US app stores, marketers are still taking advantage of its positioning as both a social platform and ecommerce engine.
The initiative: Urban Outfitters is teaming with HGTV to launch the “Dream Dorm Makeover Contest,” which invites students to create a Pinterest board that captures their vision for a dorm that reflects their personal style, supports their daily routines, and feels like home. Our take: The campaign is designed to help Urban Outfitters connect with Gen Z students and their parents, as well as millennials seeking creative ways to revamp small spaces.
The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.