President Donald Trump said the US will set a global “baseline” tariff in the 15%–20% range, up from the 10% rate he outlined in April. Our take: Steep tariffs are the new normal. Consumers currently face an average effective tariff of 18.2%—17.3% after adjusting for spending shifts—the highest since the 1930s, per Yale Budget Lab.
Q2 earnings revealed turbulence across the travel sector as American Airlines and Southwest reported lower net income and reduced their outlooks. With US airlines and hotels likely to face more headwinds amid uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy, companies need to adjust their strategies.
20% of US adults say they’ve traveled or will travel less than planned due to the economy, according to a May survey by The Points Guy and The Harris Poll.
The trend: US consumers are pulling back on summer vacations. The average trip budget has dropped 25.4% YoY to $3,132, per an Ipsos survey for Generali Global Assistance. Our take: The pullback in travel spending is a canary in the coal mine. As economic anxiety deepens, more consumers will likely pull back further, scrutinize discretionary purchases, and double down on value. Retailers, brands, and travel companies should brace for a more cautious consumer in the second half of the year. To stay competitive, they should look for opportunities to: Sharpen their value messaging to align with price-sensitive mindsets; Stay closely attuned to shifting consumer sentiment through ongoing survey and trend analysis; Position themselves as allies in financial wellness, offering not just products, but practical ways to help consumers stretch their dollars further.
The insight: Travel demand has stabilized after a turbulent start to Q2, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in an interview with CNBC. As a result, the airline reinstated its profit outlook for the year. It had withdrawn its forecast after President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. Our take: The summer travel season is shaping up to be better than airlines expected at the beginning of Q2—but demand remains constrained by uncertainty as consumers debate whether to indulge now or conserve their resources in anticipation of future financial strain. Airlines can either juice demand by lowering prices, or protect their bottom lines by cutting capacity and doubling down on premium experiences.
The commerce media space is growing fast, and as it gets more crowded, it’s becoming harder to keep up with the retail media giants. But by teaming up, smaller players can more easily scale their networks to achieve the reach to stay competitive.
US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.
The news: Budget concerns are top of mind for consumers as they plan their summers. Our take: Consumers’ inclination to save is likely to fuel anxiety in the hospitality industry—especially as uncertainty causes travelers to delay booking until practically the last minute.
Economic concerns and global tensions are forcing travelers to rethink their summer plans as booking windows shrink and cost-consciousness rises.
The news: Weaker-than-expected travel demand is driving JetBlue Airways to launch cost-cutting measures, including eliminating underperforming routes, ending service in some cities, halting nonessential aircraft refreshes, and restructuring its leadership team, per Bloomberg. Our take: Macro uncertainty is compounding the pressures on already struggling companies—whether it’s JetBlue, auto parts maker Marelli, or home furnishings retailer At Home—as each grapples with weakened demand, rising costs, and limited financial flexibility.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss how anti-US sentiment, live tourism, and tariffs are all shaping people’s 2025 summer travel plans. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Vice President of Research Jennifer Pearson and Analyst Rachel Wolff. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.
The news: Hotel companies are expanding their upscale offerings to capitalize on strong demand for unique and customized accommodations among affluent consumers. Our take: Luxury and lifestyle brands are weathering economic ambiguity better than economy lodging. This divergence indicates that upscale, experiential offerings will be more resilient, while economy hotels face headwinds from cost-conscious consumers.
Travel demand is becoming harder to predict: Consumers are waiting until the last moment to make plans as uncertainty complicates spending decisions.
Chinese consumers’ travel spending softened during a recent holiday: That’s a clear sign that confidence is strained due to trade tensions with the US.
The summer travel season will look very different this year: More trips are planned, but vacations will be shorter and cheaper.
Now offering massages, art tours, and more without a home booking, Airbnb is turning into a full-service travel platform with a trove of first-party data.
The US could be the only country to experience a drop in foreign travel spending this year: Tariffs, uncertain travel policies, and a boycott by Canadian and Mexican travelers may cost the economy $12.5 billion.
Disney’s domestic parks fueled Q2 strength: International results lagged, but a capital-light Abu Dhabi expansion points to future opportunity.
Consumers—especially Gen Z—are eager to spend on live events: Summer concert ticket sales are at record levels thanks to high-profile stadium tours and the strong appeal of live experiences.
Nobody knows what’s ahead: Macroeconomic turmoil and shifting tariff policies make forecasting a guessing game that many consumer brands are opting out of.