The news: Capital One’s net revenues increased 25% QoQ to $12.5 billion—one of the many dramatic changes after its merger with Discover.Our take: The scale of Capital One’s merger is eyewatering. As the issuer looking to maximize its yields, it can both offer more attractive credit and debit products within a regulatory environment that is friendly to ambitious growth.
The situation: With President Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariff deadline—pushed from July 9 to August 1—fast approaching, the White House has announced the outlines of trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. Our take: This new tariff regime is already dragging on growth—and the effects are likely to deepen. Before the Trump administration rolled out its trade agenda, we expected US retail sales this year to rise 2.9% YoY, a slight increase from the 2.8% growth last year. But given the current tariff regime, we now expect sales to increase just 1.5%, which would be a real sales decrease, since that’s below the rate of inflation. We’re not alone. Goldman Sachs sees a clear deceleration ahead, citing tariffs as a likely driver of both rising prices and weakened consumer spending. And while economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal trimmed the odds of a recession to 33%—down from 45% in April—it remains well above the 22% forecast in January. In this new normal, retailers and manufacturers should prepare for sustained margin pressure, increasingly cautious consumers, and slower growth.
The challenge: Hasbro and Mattel may be signaling muted confidence with upgraded full-year outlooks—Hasbro raised its guidance and Mattel reinstated its forecast after a pause in May—but both faced the same headwind: Retailers delayed holiday inventory builds and postponed shelf resets into Q3, which weighed on Q2 results. Our take: Weak Q2 orders could set up a rebound in the back half, but Hasbro and Mattel can’t depend on their legacy brands alone to drive growth. To protect margins in a volatile market—tariffs alone could cost Hasbro up to $180 million this year (although it expects the hit to be closer to $60 million)—both companies need to trim SKUs and focus on proven winners, diversify their sourcing to cut tariff risk, and fine-tune their pricing and promotional levers. Their success will ultimately depend on their ability to adapt to shifting operational pressures.
Tesla is officially in the restaurant business following the much-hyped opening of the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles. The futuristic concept could be the template for additional openings in the US as well as abroad, CEO Elon Musk said—helping the company boost brand awareness, engagement, and sales. The diner’s launch—and the accompanying wave of press and social media posts—could help reset consumers’ perceptions of the Tesla brand at a particularly tumultuous time for the company. But it could also, given the company’s increasingly polarized reputation, become a focal point for protests, which might deter would-be customers from stopping in.
Chipotle lowered its FY sales forecast after same-store sales fell more than expected in Q2, marking the second-straight quarter of declining traffic as wary consumers think twice about dining out. Chipotle’s Q2 struggles clearly show that consumers are becoming much pickier about where they choose to spend their money. The vast array of meal deals available in the QSR marketplace means Chipotle can no longer compete on value alone—making menu innovation and limited-time offerings even more necessary to drive traffic.
The news: Magnite and Dentsu are expanding their partnership in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region to streamline video and connected TV (CTV) capabilities, per a press release. The agreement will use Magnite’s SpringServe video platform across markets like the UK and Spain to support Dentsu’s programmatic CTV offering, Total TV. Our take: Magnite and Dentsu’s partnership marks a critical expansion, giving advertisers a better opportunity to deliver impactful, precise, and measurable video and CTV experiences at scale across key markets.
The news: The Trump administration unveiled a sweeping AI action plan that trades oversight for acceleration—seeking to supercharge US dominance in artificial intelligence by dismantling regulatory guardrails, undercutting state authority, and fast-tracking infrastructure and development, per Wired. Our take: For marketers, this could mean an influx of new tools, looser content moderation, and shorter time to market for AI-driven campaigns. Marketers should audit their AI tools, implement AI best practices and safety training, and prepare for faster deployment cycles in a looser regulatory environment.
Retailers have been quietly sidelining plus-size clothing and reducing in-store quantities, even though most US women wear larger sizes. This shrinking presence isn't just a bad business decision; it's out of step with consumer preferences.
The trend: Brands are ramping up investment in women’s sports to attract diverse audiences in an underserved sector. Snapchat partnered with Togethxr, a sports media company focused on women in sports. Kim Kardashian-owned Skims partnered with League One Volleyball in a deal that will see Skims become the official sleepwear, loungewear, and intimates partner of the league. Our take: Smart, forward-thinking brands will follow in the footsteps of Snapchat and Skims, capitalizing on women’s sports as an undersaturated market with strong potential to drive action before hitting its ceiling.
The news: Google’s AI Overviews feature gets users offline and out of search quickly, making it harder for brands and websites to capture attention and clicks. Only 8% of Google users whose search triggered an AI Overview clicked on a link, per Pew Research. Among those who didn’t see an AI summary, nearly twice as many (15%) clicked a link. Our take: Google’s AI tools offer fast answers, but they’re cutting off engagement before it can begin. For publishers, brands, and creators, that means fewer opportunities to connect, convert, or even be seen. Prioritize visibility on platforms favored by AI Overviews, like YouTube and Reddit, and strengthen owned channels like newsletters and apps to help boost appearance in results while reducing dependence on traffic from Google.
The news: Amazon is acquiring AI wearables company Bee, opening up a path for the Big Tech player to reenter the wearables field. The startup sells $49.99 AI-powered watches, which record and transcribe all conversations. Amazon said all Bee employees have been offered roles at the company. The value of the deal wasn’t disclosed. Our take: With Bee’s technology—and its endlessly refreshed user data—Amazon could incrementally improve its beleaguered Alexa or train future products. If the company plans to keep Bee running, rather than cancel the product and use its software elsewhere, it could have substantial competition in the AI wearables space—especially if OpenAI launches an AI device.
The news: ChatGPT isn’t just leading the chatbot race—it’s dominating it. With rapid growth and billions of daily prompts, it remains the go-to generative AI (genAI) tool for both businesses and consumers despite rising competition. The stats: Figures on the AI leader’s user growth are debated, but the most consistent recent number for weekly active users (WAUs) is 500 million—an increase from 100 million WAUs in November 2023, a year after its debut. That number tripled to 300 million by December 2024. Our take: As genAI evolves from a novelty product to a routine tool in workflows and daily life, ChatGPT is maintaining its role as an industry leader. To stay ahead, OpenAI should focus on improving ChatGPT as a core product and prove it can scale profits sustainably before racing to outbuild its rivals.
YouTube is the No. 1 US media platform when it comes to time spent by US adult users, reaching 11.4 billion minutes per day in 2025.
The news: Primark is incorporating inclusive and sensory-friendly features into its kidswear line to help more children feel “comfortable and good” in their clothes, per The Retail Bulletin. Our take: Inclusivity isn’t just about doing the right thing—it’s a smart business strategy. At a time when brand loyalty is eroding—especially among Gen Z and millennial shoppers—retailers and brands that thoughtfully accommodate children with sensory sensitivities have a real opportunity. By offering products and experiences that meet these needs, they can forge lasting connections with parents who are actively seeking out solutions that make their kids feel comfortable and seen.
Q2 2025 earnings highlighted a widening gap among the major advertising holding companies. Publicis Groupe posted 5.9% organic growth and won major accounts from WPP and IPG, including Mars and Paramount. Omnicom remained stable at 3% growth, while Interpublic shrank 3.5% organically but improved margins ahead of its acquisition by Omnicom. WPP fared worst, slashing its full-year forecast and citing client losses and macroeconomic uncertainty. As brands tighten budgets and demand results, winners like Publicis are doubling down on performance and AI tools. The sector is consolidating—and only the most adaptive players are poised to thrive.
The news: A recent survey by The Harris Poll for Current.com found that Gen Zers and millennials value financial health more than physical attractiveness in a potential romantic partner. Among both generations, 33% prioritize a partner’s emergency savings over their looks. This contrasts sharply with 23% of Gen Xers and 18% of baby boomers, who are more likely than Gen Zers to have emergency savings themselves and may not prioritize this in a partner. Our take: We’ve covered how Gen Zers are putting their financial goals on pause to prioritize summer fun and living in the moment. And we recommended that financial institutions (FIs) gently remind Gen Zers of their financial goals and how to reach them while still supporting their priorities.
The news: We’ve recently covered a fintech, a stablecoin issuer, an auto manufacturer, foreign banks, and credit unions that are considering, applying for, or in the process of acquiring US banking licenses. Some have already succeeded, inspiring others to follow suit. And according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, banking charter applications have increased 70% since 2024. Our take: We predict traditional banks will push for regulatory changes that prevent the steady inflow of new banks that haven’t had to follow the more stringent requirements of the past. Banks’ long-standing customer relationships will be a central pillar of their defense strategy. Banks must increasingly leverage their established trust, extensive branch networks, and comprehensive product suites to highlight their stability and one-stop-shop convenience compared to specialized fintechs or more limited new entrants.
Athleisure brands lululemon athletica and Vuori are expanding their presence overseas as the US market cools. With the US market looking increasingly uncertain, it’s no surprise that brands like lululemon and Vuori are looking to international markets to shift growth into a new gear. This trend will likely pick up among apparel brands this year, as they look for ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs and reduce their reliance on US shoppers.